Bennett Petts & Normington for the DCCC (10/8-9, likely voters):
Don Cazayoux (D-inc): 46
Bill Cassidy (R): 29
Michael Jackson (I): 9
(MoE: ±4.9%)
That spread is very similar to a recent Anzalone Liszt internal for Cazayoux showing a 48-32-9 race. While I’m still not comfortable seeing turncoat Dem Michael Jackson getting nearly one-tenth of the vote, that number could come down a notch in November (as it often happens with third-party challengers), and the DCCC already has boots on the ground with a well-organized field campaign here.
It seems that for all the hype, we haven’t seen any evidence that Cassidy is really catching on so far.
If we can hold our losses to just FL-16 and maybe TX-22, I will be happy.
with the pvi inflated due to bush being on the ballot in the last two presidential elections, lampson responding well to ike, mccin underpreforming in texas, dem voter surge and other factors, i think lampson has a good shot.
The fact that Darth came to town to fundraise for him? The terrible ad he’s scrubbed from his YouTube page? The fact that he admits his socialist tendencies for the wealthy?
Also, Jackson’s #’s are NOT likely to go down, as he is an elected representative in the State House. That 9% is his base. They’ll likely vote for him even if hell freezes over.
What you may not know is that a plurality is needed to win, not a majority, so I’m not too worried about Jackson. Most of the liberals in the district are voting for Cazayoux, with some liberals who seem to think that Cassidy is a good moderate guy and somehow better than Cassidy on the issues. There will be a forthcoming post addressing that mistaken belief.